Irvine & Martin’s (1984) seminal Foresight in Science: Picking the Winners, provides fascinating insights into early attempts at technology foresight. The authors describe a comparative case study of technology foresight in France, (what was then) West Germany, the US and Japan in the 1970s and early ’80s. The study reveals some of the trials and tribulations of early foresight programs and some of the successes. Despite being almost 30 years old, the book is just as relevant today for those interested in technology and research and social policy as it was when it was published.
The book shows how early attempts at technology foresight suffered from a limited understanding of the relation between technology and society, unsophisticated methodologies, and a lack of confidence in the technology foresight approach itself. Most of the foresight activities described relied too much on experts from scientific communities, who were often motivated more by their concerns for their own fields rather than the broader concerns that the exercises were intended to address. As a result, many of the foresight exercises described failed to produce useful results or the results had little impact on policy.
Japan is presented as a notable exception to the rather unimpressive efforts in the other countries studied. In fact, the authors seem at times to be so impressed with Japanese foresight activities that it might in itself constitute a justifiable criticism of the book. Nevertheless, the Japanese foresight activities described are deserving of much of the authors’ praise. The Japanese approach to foresight, starting in the 1960s and extending through, and beyond, the 1970s, comes much closer to what contemporary foresight activities strive to be. The Japanese based their foresight activities on a very deliberate vision of a technology-driven society and, therefore, were more comprehensive in their approach as regards their methodologies and the scope of the exercises. The Japanese used a bottom-up approach, mixed quantitative and qualitative methods, and included a broad range of key stakeholders, including the scientific community, and social and cultural experts. Participants were significantly invested in the projects and the outcomes had considerable impact on Japanese R&D and social and economic policy, and continues to do so to this day.
The authors derive, from the Japanese study, a hint of a framework for technology foresight activities that has been referred to as the five c’s:
- communication between disparate groups of participants
- concentration on the long-term future
- coordination of future R&D activities
- creation of consensus on future priorities
- commitment to results to ensure that they become self-fulfilling
This framework is further developed in the authors’ later book, Research Foresight: Priority-Setting in Science (Martin & Irvine, 1989), which I will write about in a later post.
References
Irvine, J. & Martin, B. R. (1984). Foresight in science: Picking the winners. London: Francis Pinter.
Martin, B. R. & Irvine, J. (1989). Research foresight: Priority-setting in science. London: Pinter Publishers.
