What makes a “future-oriented” policy? Towards a framework for identifying and analysing policies.

I have often emphasized the need for future-oriented policies in education as a response to rapidly increasing change to the extent that if I were to be asked, “Tryggvi, what are you all about?”, that would be the gist of my response. I was recently asked what a “future-oriented policy” is, and to my dismay, realized that I didn’t really have any concrete response. I was no more enlightened after mulling over vast amounts of scholarly and policy literature. The few attempts to define future orientations in policymaking tend to focus on the decision-making process, the mindset of policy makers, or the time span that policies are intended to address, rather than specific characteristics of the policies themselves. These are not very useful for policy analysts who want to examine policies and determine whether they can be expected to adequately address future needs. For that we need to describe a set of characteristics that the policies themselves display that can help determine whether and how they apply to the long-term. Faced with the lack of such frameworks, I decided that it is about time that someone come up with one. So, I present here a rough draft of what I will call the AVENUE framework (I think acronyms are always useful) for analyzing future orientations of existing policies.

The time span that policies are intended to address is an obviously significant feature. I have chosen not to include it in my framework because it is a crosscutting feature that applies to all of the characteristics that I will describe. For now, I will point to my previous writing on the expected duration of policies and stick with Irvine & Martin’s definition of a long-term policy as one that addresses the next 10 years or more.

Before I get to the AVENUE framework itself I want to mention some of what I did find in the scholarly literature that pertains to future-oriented policies. First is Irvine & Martin’s categorization of the time span that policies are expected to address. This is described in the article that I have already linked to above (see here). Second, is the literature on “foresight programs” that I’ve described in several previous articles. This body of literature has tended to focus on the mindset of policy makers, describing foresight programs as tools to encourage future orientations in the consideration of policy options. Third (and somewhat related to the second), is literature that focuses on the role of future orientations in policymaking processes. For example, RAND’s Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition defines a “long-term decision” as,
“one in which reflecting on potential events decades in the future causes policymakers to choose near-term actions different from those they would otherwise have pursued. For a long-term decision, long-term thinking must influence near-term choices.”

I’ve already described how the first of my findings from the scholarly literature applies to future-oriented policies. The second and third are not useful for determining the future-orientedness of published policies because they essentially require a probing of policy makers’ minds or a review of the policy making process. Obviously, both of these types of exercises can be important for in-depth policy analyses, but they are usually not feasible for those trying to understand the content of a published policy. For that sort of exercise we need a framework that describes features and characteristics expected to be clearly displayed within the published policies themselves, and that is what the AVENUE framework is intended for.

The AVENUE framework describes six characteristics of future-oriented policies:

• Anticipatory: Policies consider a range of possible futures and allow for multiple interpretations for diverse contexts – essentially, anticipate change.
• Vision: Policies reflect long-term vision.
• Empowerment: Policies enable those affected by policies to realize long-term visions.
• New meaning: Policies create new meaningful contexts.
• Utility: Policies serve as useful tools for creating and pursuing preferred futures.
• Ethical: Policies respect the long-term needs of those affected by the policy.

Anticipatory:
Future-oriented policies aim to anticipate changes that are likely to occur in the future.
The goal of many types of “futuring” exercises is to identify possible changes that may affect policy environments. One way of building anticipation into future-oriented policies is to devise contingency plans, i.e. plans that specifically address circumstances that may arise. In times of rapid change, however, devising contingency plans for the myriad of possible situations that may occur is unrealistic. Another way that anticipation has been integrated in policy frameworks is through the strategic use of ambiguity. In these cases, policy frameworks are developed in a manner that invites multiple interpretations to apply policies to a range of contexts. Finland’s National Curriculum Guidelines (NCGs) provide an example of effective use of strategic ambiguity in educational policy. Finland’s NCGs are relatively brief and describe clear pathways to Finns’ preferred futures, while providing considerable flexibility for institutions and regions to be able to address the specific needs of their communities.

Vision:
Future-oriented policies reflect a determination to realize preferred futures, thereby challenging the notion that the future is something that impinges on societies.
A core assumption in all futures-related fields is that futures are constructed through the social activities of people, and that, on this basis, societies can purposefully affect their futures by directing social activity and technological development toward preferred outcomes. However, these preferred outcomes must be well articulated and based on reasonably justified expectations regarding the future. Therefore, future-oriented policies either implicitly or explicitly refer to an articulated vision of what the aspects of a society addressed by a policy will look like in the long-term if expected goals are met.

Empowerment:
Future-oriented policies foster an environment that enables and encourages individuals affected by policies to deal with continuously changing contexts.
Future-oriented policies are based on the assumption that things will change, often in unpredictable ways. Future-oriented policies, therefore, promote collaborative reflection on changing contexts and creative fora for addressing change. Specific policy measures are flexible so that they can be adapted to changing contexts while still remaining focused on long-term visions of preferred futures.

New meaning:
Future-oriented policies promote the construction of new meaning through the provision of fora and opportunities for constructive discourse.
Old and repurposed concepts hinder progress by anchoring discourse in the past. Rapidly changing contexts require new ways of framing issues to promote new ways of thinking. Future-oriented policies promote the creation of, and integrate, well-defined novel concepts that illustrate changing needs and pathways toward preferred futures that are qualitatively different than those of the past.

Utility:
Future-oriented policies serve as tools for constructing preferred futures.
Future-oriented polices are not directives, nor are they prescriptive; rather, they promote action and involvement among broad stakeholder groups in the pursuit of a shared vision for the future. The strategic use of ambiguity plays a particularly important role in this regard. Ambiguity provides pointers in general directions toward preferred futures but allows stakeholders to define pathways appropriate for their specific social and economic contexts.

Ethics:
Future-oriented policies anticipate and embrace diversity.
Societies are growing ever more diverse due to increasing immigration/emigration, uneven patterns of development, and recognition of at-risk minority populations. Future-oriented policies generally regard diversity as a strength to be fostered. Demographic changes are acknowledged and policies are able to accommodate populations with different needs than the majority, whatever they may be.

The AVENUE acronym is an appropriate one because, in a general sense, future-oriented policies function as pointers toward preferred futures. Future-oriented policies are, however, never hewn in stone. They are based on the belief that the only reliable expectation for the future is that things will change. Thus, future-oriented policies provide opportunities to construct and reconstruct multiple pathways toward the future to ensure the greatest benefit for everyone affected by the policy.